Analyzing the Cassel to the Chiefs trade

With all the word going around about the Chiefs and New England trade for Matt Cassel, there are lots of opinions flying around that don't really explain anything. I am going to admit that I am not happy with this deal. I will get to my explanation of that after I explain that the Chiefs got a good deal if they believe Cassel is a potential franchise QB. Lets look at what a couple of experts said January 12, 2009 on ESPN.Com. Keep in mind Floyd Reese was a candidate for the Chiefs GM position, and replaced Pioli in NE as the top personnel man in NE.

"It would have to be multiple choices and very high choices to get Cassel," ESPN analyst and former Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Two first-rounders, or a one and a two and a three ... It'll be something very, very expensive."

Michael Lombardi, who last week was the first to report the Patriots would put the franchise tag on Cassel, said the starting price should be the draft choices the San Diego Chargers received for Eli

At the 2004 draft, the New York Giants acquired Manning's rights for Philip Rivers' rights along with a third-round pick that year and their first- and fifth-round picks in 2005.

"Whatever the Giants gave up for Eli has to be the market," Lombardi said. "It's got to be a first-rounder, and not the 22nd or 24th pick in the draft. It has to be a substantial one and one that keeps on giving."

It sounds like the experts believe that Cassel is worth at a minimum a top 15 first round pick and a third round pick. Getting Vrabel and Cassel for a high second round pick is a pretty sweet deal. The Chiefs traded for a (presumed) starting QB for the same price we paid for Surtain. That is a smoking deal if Cassel is the real deal.

Now was it the right deal for the Chiefs? I do not believe so. The reason is this, with that offensive line and those skill position players the Pats were able to set league records on offense in 2007. In 2008 with the only major change on offense QB,the Pats were 5th in total offense and 8th in total points. Now in KC, we can dream about a top 10 offense but we can also dream about having that good of an offensive line and Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. Bowe is pretty good but is not the same level of a Moss that wants to play. Tony G is an awesome TE but it is much easier to focus attention to a TE and shut him down without great WRs. The biggest difference between what Cassel had and the Chiefs had is an offensive line. I cannot compare Thigpen and Cassel's stats fairly because of that difference. There is no objective way to compare the two QBs. It is all subjective.

What Thigpen did last year was amazing to me. He had no snaps and was not prepared to take the job. He made it work and managed to give the Chief's offense some life. Tyler Thigpen took a jalopy and drove it home. Matt Cassel proved he could take a finely tuned sports car and not wreck it too bad. Keep in mind the Pats were 16-0 with the other guy. With Cassel and the easiest schedule in football, the Pats were 11-5 and not even a playoff team. I am not sold on Cassel in the least bit.

In conclusion, the deal is done and I am rooting for the best. We have a lot of cap money to blow and if done right Cassel's contract will not hurt long term. Without that second round pick, it will be much harder to rebuild the right side of the offensive line.

Chiefs Offseason Wish List Updated

I have been traveling to the most god awful region of the world and downloaded some research information to know what I was rooting for in free agency and the draft a little better. I also watched quite a bit of the combine and was impressed with several of my guys. I wasn’t greatly impressed by Sanchez in the throwing drills but he showed the ability to make the throws and apparently wowed in his interviews. I guess I wouldn’t be heartbroken if the Kansas City Chiefs drafted him at #3 in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Also, I guess I was a little bit harsh on Mr. Crabtree. I saw a few interviews with him and he seems like a good kid that is receiving some really bad advice right now. He needs to get his surgery done, over with and live with not having run a 40. I was also mistaken with his height apparently, he measured up to 6’1 3/8. In a game where tenths of seconds in a 40 yard dash determine whether or not one is a deep threat, and inch and three-eighths is a huge difference. If we stay at number 3, Crabtree is the only impact player worth that selection.

Free Agency

1. Sign Ray Lewis. I am very doubtful we will get this done. It sounds like Ray will end up with the Cowboys or the Jets. I still think the Chiefs D needs a leader and this is the guy that will do it. Another option here is Vilma.

2. Jason Brown (C, Bal). Dude is big, young, and good. I had always assumed that the Ravens would keep him but it appears that he is looking for more money than they want to pay. There are reports he is going to St. Louis for a visit. The Chiefs need to bring him west and keep him in Missouri.

3. We need D line help. There isn’t a superstar out there that I feel comfortable with. Antonio Smith I guess played well enough in the playoffs to cash in but is he really the man? Peppers got the tag and wants to play in a 3-4. That doesn’t work. Haynesworth is talking about 100 million contract. The money he is looking at is far too much for a DT which is a position in which players are more likely to get injured. A low cost temporary fix like Bert Berry might be a place to look.

4. Stacy Andrews might just be the Chiefs answer at RT. He was the Cincinnati Bengals franchise player last year and blew out his knee. The Chiefs have had luck with bringing in a talented tackle coming off a knee injury. Offensive linemen don't lose anything after a knee injury.

5. We need a nickle back after releasing Pat Surtain. Drayton Florence and Dre' Bly are available and should come cheap.

The Draft

Obviously what moves are made in free agency will dictate what happens in the draft. I will keep this post fluid based on what happens.

1. I prefer to trade down from the #3 spot. With Crabtree measuring up at 6’1 3/8, I can accept him. If the Kansas City Chiefs stay at #3, Crabtree has to be the guy. I think Curry will be a fine player, but a top 5 guy should make a huge impact and I look at Curry and see another DJ. Not a bad guy to look at in the teens but I just don’t see the impact to be a top 5 guy. With Crabtree injured, it will be harder to trade out of that spot. We can trade down once and get Maclin which will add a deep threat and a returner. But being a wish list, I would trade down to the mid to late teens and select the RT of the future and my selection will be Michael Oher (T).

2. In my first round trade downs, I have acquired a second round pick to give me a pair in the round. I will use those picks to select Duke Robinson (G) and Michael Johnson (DE).

3. I also have a pair of 3rd round picks. Eric Wood (C ) based on grades should be available but other centers Luigs, Unger, or Mack would be the guy if available. The second 3rd round pick Gerald McRath (OLB).

4. With my 4th round pick I select Terrance Taylor (DT).

5. In my wish list, we are working with a spread base so with my 5th round pick, I select Graham Harrell (QB).

6. With my 6th round pick I select Tiquan Underwood (WR).

7. With my 7th round and final selection in the 2009 NFL Draft I select Brandon Walker (G)

Undrafted FA

I would bring in as many of these guys as I can. Not to speculate on certain players draft status, I would say that if Chase Daniel is still there I would bring him in and see if he can be an NFL QB in the spread.

What will these moves do for the Chiefs?

1. Solidify the Chiefs offensive line for years to come. I could see opening day lineup for ’09 from left to right as Albert, Waters, Wood, Robinson, Oher. With Walker maybe groom able to replace Waters in a few years, 4 out of the 5 starting O lineman would be under 25 and this is a crew that could stay together for a decade.

2. Unfortunately, there isn’t an impact defensive player here. Unless we get Ray Lewis, the D will still not have a leader. I think Johnson will pay dividends in 2010 on D. McRath probably will not be starter material in his rookie year and Taylor probably won’t either. In the long term, I think Taylor next to Dorsey will be a force in the middle of the D line.